South Sudan: Origins and Implications of Emerging (in)security Dynamic

Emerging Security Dynamics in South Sudan.pdf 271K   View   Download

On 9 January 2011 the people of South Sudan in all parts of the world voted in an historic referendum to decide the fate of the semi-autonomous region of the country then know as Sudan. The referendum was in fulfilment of one of the
major requirements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which brought an end to more than two decades of hostilities between the North and South and one of Africa’s most violent civil wars – the second Sudan civil war. In the run-up to the referendum, a number of provocative political exchanges between the North and South, as well as logistical challenges, had cast doubt on the possible occurrence and peacefulness of the event. Its orderly and
generally peaceful nature therefore drew the commendations of the international community for the commitment of both the North and South to peace in Sudan. An overwhelming 98,83 per cent of Southern voters cast their ballots in favour of separation.

Emerging Security Dynamics in South Sudan.pdf 271K   View   Download

Doubts still existed among the international community in the immediate aftermath of the referendum due to suspicions about Khartoum’s possible response to the choice of separation. It therefore came as a pleasant relief when even before the official announcement of the results, President Omar al-Bashir declared his respect for the choice of the people of South Sudan. Days before the official declaration of the results and about a month after the start of the referendum, militias loyal to renegade General George Athor Deng clashed with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) in Fangak county on 9 February.

The clashes claimed more than a hundred lives and displaced several thousand people. Athor’s rebellion was not new – its origins are traceable to the April 2010 elections. However, this attack was important because it registered the de facto breakdown of intra-South dialogue efforts initiated by the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) prior to the referendum. It also highlighted the existence of unfinished business in the attainment of a unified South for independence in July 2011. Since this incident, a number of other former SPLA generals have revolted and separately declared their intentions to topple the GoSS and to replace it with an all-inclusive broad-based government that is representative of the people of the South.

Emerging Security Dynamics in South Sudan.pdf 271K   View   Download

The situation has raised serious questions about the state of intra-South cohesion, the capacity of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the SPLA to provide security for Southerners, the SPLM’s ability to preside over and/or nurture….……….Read more 

Emerging Security Dynamics in South Sudan.pdf 271K   View   Download

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Malik Agar: SRF will take fight to Khartoum

Dear All,
Please find attached the SPLMN Chairman Malik Agar statement to RadioDabanga.
Anwar Elhaj
SPLMN Representative to the US

Malik Agar: SRF will take fight to Khartoum

Hilversum (5 Jan 2012.)

The chairman of the Sudan People’s liberation Movement North (SPLM-N) and ex-governor of Blue Nile state Malik Agar announced four mechanisms of action to bring down the regime in Khartoum.

In an interview with Radio Dabanga to be broadcast on Saturday, Agar said the first mechanism and the preferred option by the Khartoum government was an ‘armed struggle’. By forming the Sudan Revolutionary Front, comprising rebel groups from across Sudan, he said they were ready to fight the government to the end, if their continued choice was the military option.

The second method for change was to work with ordinary people, students, civil society and all political forces to start uprisings in cities across Sudan through mass demonstrations and civil disobedience.

The third stated Agar was to use diplomacy, and assistance from parties outside of Sudan. And the fourth would involve comprehensive negotiations between all political parties and on all issues affecting people in Sudan.

Agar said all four options are open, but said if the government continued to wage war across Sudan, the Sudan Revolutionary Front will take the fighting to Khartoum.

He said it is only a matter of time for the war to reach Khartoum.

On the question of negotiation the deputy chairman said the government abandoned the negotiating table wihtout turning back.

Agar said if ‘the government lean towards peace, we will lean towards peace, but if they lean towards war, we are ready.’

He said the rebel movements have the ‘experience and insights’ of both.

Malik Agar to Radio Dabaga.doc 26K   View   Download

UN on South Sudan: Thousands of Jonglei Evacuees Need Help

By Christine Hsu

A United Nations agency is “deeply concerned” about the continued violence in Southern Sudan and an emergency operation is needed to aid those who evacuated in the ongoing violence.

The World Food Programme, the world’s largest humanitarian agency delivering food to victims of war, civil conflict and natural disasters, said in a released statement Wednesday that the recent instability in Jonglei State ensuing large scale displacement has “pushed  the food security situation to crisis levels.”

Internally displaced children look at a UN World Food Programme (WFP) plane air dropping food in Olilim camp in Lira district, 457 km (301 miles) north of Kampala October 19, 2007. Roads and bridges in north and northeastern Uganda had been damaged due to heavy rain in recent weeks and relief trucks were unable to reach people. (James Akena/ Reuters)

Thousands of people, many of them women and children have been forced to seek refuge in the countryside where there is little or no access to food and clean drinking water, and the intertribal violence has led to “an unknown number of deaths” and destruction of many buildings and properties in Likuangole and Pibor, that agency said.

“Reaching out to this vulnerable group of children is an important step”, said UN Humanitarian Coordinator, Lise Grande in a statement.  “But it’s only the start. An emergency operation is going to be needed in the weeks ahead to help people uprooted by the violence.”

The UN Humanitarian Air Service delivered emergency rations to Pibor to feed more than 1,000 people for two weeks on New Year’s Eve.

WFP had also started pre-positioning food in the town of Boma where there will be enough food to feed more than 40,000 people for two weeks before the New Year.

Since the New Year, the agency said that hundreds of displaced people have already arrived in Boma, with more coming each day.

The agency has boosted capacity in Boma, and plans on providing immediate assistance to 2,000 internally displaced people.

The agency said that the main challenges for volunteers working in this part of South Sudan is the lack of security and difficulty of accessibility, and it continues to assist the humanitarian community to move life-saving cargo by air to the most isolated parts of the area as well as delivering supplies by road.

Published by Medicaldaily.com

http://www.medicaldaily.com/news/20120105/8605/sudan-violence-intertribal-violence-humanitarian-agency-war-concerned-united-nations-un-new.htm

SDF mission in South Sudan
The Japan Times
20 adopted an action plan to send Ground Self-Defense Force engineers in 2012 as part of the United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS), in which some 5500 people from 59 countries are taking part. This is the second peacekeeping …

UN on South Sudan: Thousands of Jonglei Evacuees Need Help
Medical Daily
The agency said that the main challenges for volunteers working in this part of South Sudan is the lack of security and difficulty of accessibility, and it continues to assist the humanitarian community to move life-saving cargo by air to the most …

South Sudanese Continue to Flee Violence along the Border
Voice of America
January 05, 2012 South Sudanese Continue to Flee Violence along the Border WFP ran a mission to Boma to distribute food supplies Kim Lewis | Washington DC The number of civilians fleeing violence along a remote border area of South Sudan has increased …

South Sudan’s Jonglei state a ‘humanitarian disaster area’
CNN International
By the CNN Wire Staff (CNN) — South Sudan’s Council of Ministers has declared Jonglei state a “humanitarian disaster area” and called on international aid agencies to provide urgently needed humanitarian assistance. The declaration came Wednesday …

Syria; Libya; Iran; South Sudan; Kenya; and more
UN Dispatch
South Sudan: UN peacekeepers have seen several dozen bodies in a remote South Sudan town which came under attack this week from a rival tribe, peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous said Thursday. Ladsous said UN helicopters took 75-80 injured people to …

Jonglei clashes: South Sudan declares a disaster

South Sudan has declared a disaster in Jonglei state, where some 100,000 people have fled recent clashes between rival ethnic groups.

This would enable aid agencies to move in urgently, as food, medicine and shelter was badly needed, the information minister told the BBC.

Following days of fighting, he said the areas was now under government control.

Some 6,000 ethnic Lou Nuer fighters attacked the area around Pibor town, outnumbering army and UN forces.

This is the latest round in a cycle of violence which has lasted several months – in one incident last year some 600 Lou Nuer were killed by attackers from the Murle community, the group which fled from Pibor.

The clashes began as cattle raids but have spiralled out of control.

There have been some reports that more than 150 people had been killed but Information Minister Mariel Benjamin Barnaba told the BBC’s Focus on Africa programme that he could confirm the deaths of between 20 and 30 people.

He said he could guarantee the security of any aid workers who went to the area.

“This area is under the complete control of the government,” he said.

On Wednesday, UN humanitarian co-ordinator in South Sudan Lise Grande said that “hundreds, if not thousands” of people had started to return to Pibor.

But she said the humanitarian situation was “pretty grim”.

“They’ve been without food, they’ve been without water, without shelter.”

Peace forum

She rejected criticism of the UN and the South Sudan army – the SPLA – of not having done enough to help civilians, many of whom reportedly faced attack when they fled the town.

“What the United Nations mission has been doing is helping the government to defend the town, we’ve been rescuing civilians, we’ve been evacuating civilians and we’ve been helping to deter violence. The UN has done its job,” she said.

An attack on the town’s southern flank had been repulsed after the SPLA, backed by UN armoured personnel carriers, had fired at the Lou Nuer, she said.

Besides the looting of a Medecins Sans Frontieres clinic, the town had not suffered much damage and the government was beginning to deploy 3,000 extra soldiers and 800 police officers to the area, Ms Grande said.

Earlier, John Boloch of South Sudan’s Peace and Reconciliation Commission and a member of the Murle community, said people who had fled Pibor had since been hunted down and killed near the River Kengen, south-east of the town.

“Children and women were massacred in that area… on the 2nd [of January], up to the 3rd,” he told Sudan Catholic Radio News.

He accused local politicians of exacerbating the long-standing rivalries for their own ends and also asked why UN peacekeepers and the army were protecting government buildings in Pibor, rather than people.

There are also reports that many people may have drowned in a river as they fled the attacks.

Mr Barnaba said that leaders of the two communities would be invited to a “peace forum” to discuss how they can put an end to the cycle of violence.

Cattle vendettas are common in South Sudan, as are other clashes between rival groups: The UN says some 350,000 people were displaced because of intercommunal violence last year.

This presents a major challenge to the government of the newly independent state, which also faces cross-border tensions with its northern neighbour Sudan.

South Sudan is one of the world’s poorest regions – it gained independence from Sudan in July 2011 and has hardly any roads, railways, schools or clinics following two decades of conflict, which have left it awash with weapons.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16427732

South Sudan appeals for humanitarian aid after fighting

Government declares disaster zone and calls for assistance as thousands flee from their homes to escape violence between ethnic groups in Jonglei state

Internally displaced people in the town of Pibor, in South Sudan’s Jonglei state. Photograph: Isaac Billy/Unmiss/EPA

South Sudan has declared Jonglei state a disaster zone and has appealed for international aid for thousands of people who have fled into the bush to escape fighting between rival ethnic groups.

South Sudan’s council of ministers declared the disaster at a special meeting on Wednesday, South Sudan’s media reported, and asked international relief agencies to rush aid to the area.

The latest round of fighting broke out in late December when 6,000 armed men from the Lou Nuer ethnic group attacked Pibor county, the home of the Murle community, in the latest clash between the two groups.

UN officials estimate more than 20,000 people fled as the Lou Nuer moved on the remote town of Pibor in apparent retaliation for cattle raids by the Murle. Gunmen burned thatched huts and looted two medical facilities run by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) over the past week during fighting that has left more than 1,000 dead in recent months. The attacks threaten to destabilise the world’s newest country.

Sarathy Rajendran, head of Médecins Sans Frontières in South Sudan, who was in Pibor on Thursday morning, said people were slowly coming back and MSF planned to start operating in the town by the end of the week.

“I was there this morning, which is an hour away by plane from Juba [the capital]. Parts of the town have been burnt, our facilities were completely looted, but people are coming back and are not afraid any more. It is stable now. There are enormous needs, some people need every single item. Our first priority will be medical care, but we are planning to provide non-food items as well so people can start rebuilding.”

As the South Sudanese government appealed for emergency aid, the information minister, Benjamin Barnaba, told the BBC’s Focus on Africaprogramme that he could guarantee the security of any aid workers who went to the area. “This area is under the complete control of the government,” he told the BBC.

Minority Rights Group International, which focuses on indigenous peoples, called on the South Sudan government to take immediate steps to protect civilians from all ethnic groups. MRG said in the long-term the government must address the root causes of violence among minority communities through political representation, disarmament and equitable distribution of natural resources.

“Competition between ethnic groups over scarce resources has escalated in South Sudan. At the same time there is a security vacuum, leading to the formation of militia groups and a breakdown of traditional structures of authority,” said Chris Chapman, MRG’s head of conflict prevention. “This will continue to threaten the stability of the new nation, unless the government acts quickly to ensure security, inclusive representation for all communities, and equitable access to land and natural resources.”

The clashes, which on the face of it appear to be cattle raids, have deeper causes to do with poverty, competition for scarce resources, the plethora of small arms left over from a decades-long war, and marginalisation of ethnic minorities, said MRG. Some minority groups felt that their interests are not being represented within the South Sudanese political system, and that resources have been diverted to more populous ethnic groups.

The fighting in the past week is the latest outbreak of violence that has lasted several months. In one incident last year, 600 Lou Nuer were killed by attackers from the Murle people, who also took away 38,000 cattle.

The UN says communal violence in Jonglei state, an isolated and swampy state with limited mud roads that are often impassable for months during heavy rains, left more than 1,100 people dead during 2011 and displaced more than 60,000 others. The clashes represent the latest challenge to the fledgling country, which became independent in July. It also faces cross-border tensions with its northern neighbour, Sudan.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/jan/05/south-sudan-appeal-humanitarian-aid?newsfeed=true

President Kiir Speaks Out On Athor’s Death

Mary Ajith

5 January 2012

Juba — Almost a month after George Athor Deng’s demise President Salva Kiir has spoken about the death which the rebel general met in Morobo County in Central Equatoria State in the hands of SPLA soldiers during a clash.

The President denied allegation that the late Athor was killed in the Ugandan capital Kampala but said Athor died in South Sudan. “He died in our country and the claims of Khartoum that Athor was killed in Kampala are not true. Let me tell you, all those who wanted to destabilize South Sudan would be brought back by God and die here in South Sudan not elsewhere,” Kiir said on Tuesday during the launching of new passports of the country in the Directorate of Immigration of the Ministry of Interior.

George Athor died on 19th of December last year and his body was buried at his home village Khorfulous on 23rd December in Jonglei State. He was killed in the absence of President Kiir who had left to attend investors’ conference in Washington-DC. Kiir said he met with Athor in the Kenyan Capital Nairobi on 19th of November, (exactly a month after that he was killed) and Athor agreed to come back as per the agreement signed between two of them adding that Athor’s signature has remained in the documents saying that he was coming.

Back to the struggle, the President said Athor was with him in the same command force and that he (Kiir) led and Athor was a junior officer in that force of the SPLA adding that he informed Athor to come back and if he won in the next election as President or a Governor no one would deny him his rights. “Athor was my junior in my commands throughout the struggle of the SPLA.

I went to Nairobi and met Athor on 19th November, 2011 and I told him to come back and if he wins election he would take that post and he agreed that he was coming, his signature is in our documents now agreeing that he was coming but later he went to Khartoum, Rwanda, Congo, Uganda and left there in the road a vehicle he used from Uganda through Kaya and finally killed in our country” Kiir narrated. He asked “what makes Athor to move all the way along to South Sudan? It is God, all those who are against South Sudan would die in South Sudan,” he concluded.

South Sudan: Kiir Speaks Out On Athor’s Death
AllAfrica.com
The President denied allegation that the late Athor was killed in the Ugandan capital Kampala but said Athor died in South Sudan. “He died in our country and the claims of Khartoum that Athor was killed in Kampala are not true. Let me tell you, …

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… beaten in the hands of security people no one from the government could believe, what has happened now to the top government official showed the conduct of the army, police and any security organ in the new nation towards citizens of South Sudan. …

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Jok Madut Jok, Undersecretary of Ministry of Culture for the unfortunate incident in which he was beaten, manhandled and harassed by the Presidential guards of HE the President of the Republic ofSouth Sudan President Salva Kiir at Wau Airport. …

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Israel eyes South Sudan aid
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Jewish federations in Boston and elsewhere are stepping up efforts to include interfaith families. Which statement do you most agree with:: Spending on interfaith programs will encourage more families to practice Judaism. Such spending sends the wrong …

South Sudan appeals for humanitarian aid after fighting The Guardian South Sudan has declared Jonglei state a disaster zone and has appealed for international aid for thousands of people who have fled into the bush to escape fighting between rival ethnic groups. South Sudan’s council of ministers declared the disaster…

Jonglei clashes: South Sudan declares a disaster BBC News South Sudan has declared a disaster in Jonglei state, where some 100000 people have fled recent clashes between rival ethnic groups. This would enable aid agencies to move in urgently, as food, medicine and shelter was badly needed, the information …

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Sudan and South Sudan

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Sudan and South Sudan

05 Jan 2012 13:09

Source: Reuters // Reuters

By Ulf Laessing
KHARTOUM, Jan 5 (Reuters) – Sudan and South Sudan face severe disputes over sharing oil revenues and ending fighting in a border region, as both nations seek to overcome enormous economic challenges.
Sudan’s south became independent on July 9 after voting in a referendum agreed under a 2005 peace deal to part from its former civil war foe.
But the two countries have so far failed to sort out major economic issues such as dividing oil revenues and other assets, coordinating the launch of new currencies and resolving disputes over the border or the contested Abyei region.
Assets at stake include billions of dollars of oil revenues, millions of acres of fertile land and substantial mineral resources such as gold and copper.
Following are some factors to watch:

NORTH-SOUTH DISPUTES
South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir visited Khartoum in October in his first visit since southern independence, allaying fears of a return to civil war.
But clashes broke out this month between both armies in a disputed border region, escalating tensions after the South accused Khartoum of having halted oil exports going through the north.
Both sides have failed to reach an agreement over how to divide up oil revenues, the lifeline for their economies. Three quarters of the former united country’s 500,000 barrels a day oil production now come from the South.
The South is seeking to pay less than the transit fee agreed under the 2005 peace deal of 50 percent of total revenues but needs to use the North’s pipeline, refineries and port to sell the oil.
Both sides have also failed to coordinate the launches of their new currencies, which is hampering cross-border trade due to lack of bilateral trade agreements or payment systems.
Politically a main point of contention is the contested Abyei region. The north sent troops and tanks into the region in May, triggering the exodus of tens of thousands of civilians. The U.N. Security Council has deployed Ethiopian peacekeepers to Abyei but the Sudanese army has not withdrawn yet.
Fighting between the northern army and armed opposition in the border area has spread to the northern state of Blue Nile. The joint border needs marking, too.
What to watch:
– Continued meetings. The worst moments of the past years came when the parties stopped talking. A series of high-level meetings would promote confidence.
– Will fighting spread further? Rebels in Sudan’s Darfur, scene of a separate insurgency, and armed groups in Blue Nile and South Kordofan states have formed an alliance to topple veteran Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir. How effective will such an alliance be?
– Oil revenues. Any details or signs of escalation in the dispute over the transit fee the South will have to pay.
– Abyei. Will both sides agree on a referendum that was originally supposed to happen with the southern independence vote?
– Nile water. Sudan’s split has created a new country in the Nile Basin. There is a bitter dispute between Egypt, which refuses to give up its major share of the Nile waters, and other basin countries that suffer drought and famine. South Sudan is likely to support its East African neighbours.

ECONOMIC CRISIS
After years of relying on oil revenues, which make up more than 90 percent of Sudan’s exports, the growing import bill has caught up with Khartoum. Banks are unable to meet the demand for foreign currency in the country, forcing an effective devaluation of the Sudanese pound and driving up inflation.
Khartoum has avoided an “Arab spring”, but small protests have become more frequent as many Sudanese fret about annual inflation hitting 18.1 percent in December from 15 percent in June. In November 2010, inflation was 9.8 percent.
The Sudanese pound has suffered a slide on the key black market due to a shortage of dollars. With oil revenues expected to fall, it has become tough for the government to get foreign currency needed for food and other imports. Plans to diversify the economy are in an early stage.
The United States just renewed a trade embargo, shutting off the north from international markets, making borrowing to fund its budget deficit difficult.
The central bank has said expenditures will need to be cut by more than a quarter this year but the government has not provided any details how to fund the budget next year.
What to watch:
– Will the Sudanese pound fall further? That would hit Sudan’s ability to buy imports. Will food inflation rise further?
– Any signs of further protests after Khartoum saw several small anti-government demonstrations in recent weeks?
– By how much will Khartoum have to cut spending at a time of grave challenges as oil revenues are expected to fall?

SOUTH SUDAN
South Sudan in 2005 was one of the least developed regions in the world. The ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has struggled to find the calibre of people to run a government and to entice talented members of the southern diaspora back home. So development has been very slow.
Politically and militarily, the south needs to ensure it opens a dialogue with the opposition to build the kind of multi-party democratic state donors will want to see in return for their financial support.
The biggest challenge is to build an economy that now depends 98 percent on oil. Investors have been reluctant to commit money due to a lack of infrastructure, corruption and rampant rebel and tribal violence.
Annual inflation hit 78.8 percent in November, up from 57.1 percent in August.
Rebellions and violence in southern oil areas with fighting at the border with Sudan could create a humanitarian emergency in the region, soaking up aid meant for development.
Up to 50,000 people fled tribal violence in Jonglei state in January, according to the U.N.
What to watch:
– State failure. Some analysts believe the South without its northern enemy will descend into chaos amid ethnic rivalries, political meddling and cattle raiding.
– The South is building from scratch a new nation with a small budget. Help from donors may be less forthcoming following the global financial crisis. (Reporting by Ulf Laessing; Edited by Richard Meares)

Sudan to Slap Fees on Oil Flows from South Sudan

KHARTOUM (Reuters) – Sudan will impose monthly fees on crude oil flowing from the newly-independent south until the two nations reach an agreement on transport payments, Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir said on Wednesday, in a hardening of Sudan’s position.

Bashir, addressing a delegation from the Sudanese parliament, said landlocked South Sudan was benefiting for now from an absence of mandatory transport fees but that its stance in talks showed it was not serious about reaching an agreement.

“Because of this we had taken a unilateral decision to impose passage fees on the crude oil every month, and this is our right,” Bashir said.

South Sudan will have to pay Khartoum to use its oil pipeline and Red Sea port to ship the oil, but the two sides have been unable to hammer out details at talks in Ethiopia. The negotiations are due to resume in mid-January.

The independence of South Sudan in July last year under a 2005 peace deal with Khartoum removed two-thirds of Sudan’s 500,000 barrels per day of oil production. Oil is the main source of revenue for both governments.

South Sudan has accused Khartoum of temporarily blocking loading of crude. Sudan denies the charges.

At stake are oil sales, worth around $3 billion, that South Sudan has contracted since its independence. The companies operating in both countries are mainly Asian, such as China’s state firm CNPC.

http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE80400N20120105?feedType=RSS&feedName=investingNews&sp=true

Sudan to slap fees on oil flows from South Sudan
Reuters Africa
Bashir, addressing a delegation from the Sudanese parliament, said landlocked South Sudan was benefiting for now from an absence of mandatory transport fees but that its stance in talks showed it was not serious about reaching an agreement. …

Sudanese President Orders Government To Continue Dialogue With South Sudan …
Bernama
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