Comment on the “Looming Military Offensives in South Sudan”

Kocrup Makuach Aleu, Juba

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This is a marvelous report on the ongoing crisis in South Sudan. Personally, as a South Sudanese citizen, I am not optimistic of peace and stability returning to our fledgling state in the foreseeable future. This due to the fact that, both warring parties are boasting of their military capabilities.

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In fact, the main aim of rebel leader, Dr. Riek Machar is to stall peace talks in Addis- Ababa, Ethiopia until the Constitutional mandate of President Kiir Mayardit comes to an end in April 2015 – when the general elections are supposed to take place. He will thus seek audience with International Community and ask for support in getting President Kiir to step down.

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Negotiations under aegis of IGAD are unpredictable now and the prospects of peace dim. We can only wait and see what will come off the ongoing military offensive between the government forces and rebel forces. This week, the rebels almost captured Bentiu town, but were repulsed by the government forces.  They may be preparing to launch another military offensive very soon on the same town. Their aim is to siege the oil fields and take control of the economy, without control over the economy, the current government is sure to experience grave challenges.

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Rumors are rife that the rebels were given full military support by the Khartoum regime to start simultaneous attacks on all the towns bordering Sudan. This is not the first time Khartoum has attempted thus. In fact, they have always been ready to aid and finance rebels against the Government of South Sudan. Their main aim is to destabilize South Sudan.

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In 1991, the three PhDs disagreed in the Movement, those were- Dr. John Garang, Dr. Lam and Dr. Riek Machar, who is currently the Chairman of SPLM- IO. Riek and Lam run to Khartoum for safety and strategized against John Garang to be unseated in the Movement. Particularly, Riek Machar accused him of dictatorship. Both leaders- Kiir and Riek- refuse to be held responsible for the inscrutable hatred and an orgy of killings between the two tribes- Dinka and Nuer. To add insult to the injury, they refused vehemently to respect the addendum to ceasefire which was signed in Ethiopia by them under the auspices of IGAD. The implementation matrix of Cessation of Hostilities Agreement has been ignored completely.

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This reminds me of in pre- colonial Uganda there was a joke about one of the clans whose members built a hut but did not leave space for a doorway only to discover the mistake when the house was complete. South Sudan is plagued by a problem of, short- sighted political leadership.

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Now Khartoum’s government has an opportunity to supply weapons to both sides in the conflict, Kiir and Riek. These guys were being supported by the Arab military and financially. There is an Arabic saying that goes (Akul al- a bid bil abid) – kill the slave through a slave.  In other words, it became the Nuer chief, Riek, against the Dinka chief, kiir. Khartoum, true to form pumped in guns to both sides. The enemy of my enemy is my friend; let the natives do the dirty work.

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This is because the Khartoum regime has using the tit for tat strategy against the people of South Sudan, accusing the government of South Sudan of supporting and aiding the rebels of SPLM North, who were fighting alongside the SPLM/A during the war of struggle and they have remained in the Sudan when South Sudan seceded from old Sudan in 2011.

The 14-Mile Area: Sudan/South Sudan update from the Small Arms Survey

Follow the link below for the latest available information and analysis from the Small Arms Survey on Dissident Militias in South Sudan. The 14-Mile Area (3 November 2014) Describing events through 25 October. SPLA-IO troops have been moving through the 14-Mile Area and are massing in East Darfur in preparation for dry season ground operations in Northern Bahr el Ghazal (NBeG). Rizeigat militias have attacked the SPLA-IO in East Darfur, concerned that the rebel’s presence in their territory will threaten Rizeigat relations with the Malual Dinka and the NBeG administration. The Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism has begun conducting minimal aerial reconnaissance of the east of the 14-Mile Area. However, its findings—absent force protection and ground patrols—are not definitive. http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures/borderdisputed-areas/14-mile-area.html For questions, comments on content, or feedback, contact: Yodit Lemma HSBA Project Coordinator Small Arms Survey yodit.lemma@smallarmssurvey.org Follow the HSBA on Twitter (@Sudan HSBA) and Facebook (Sudan HSBA – Small Arms Survey)